Why Canadian Fixed Mortgage Rates Are Rising

In the past month, Canada's lowest insured 5-yr fixed moved from high-3% to low-4%, while uninsurable offers shifted from low-4% to mid-4%.
The central bank's policy rate mainly guides variable mortgages; fixed rates track bond yields, which also reflect economic conditions and rate expectations.
Lenders track 5-yr federal bond yields, then add credit risk, hedging, operating costs, and profit; insured mortgages stay cheaper because default risk shifts to insurers.
Over past 12 mo, yields climbed ~80bps, but lowest insured rates rose ~45bps as competition for renewals kept spreads tighter in Canada.
Bond moves pass through slowly, and lenders often cut later than they raise. Quotes far below the recent 2-week yield-plus-spread rule may rise soon.