Canada Rate Outlook: Stable Through 2026

Core inflation is easing, with underlying price pressures moderating and reducing the urgency for further monetary tightening.

Economic growth has stabilized after earlier weakness, while the labor market remains steady enough to support a policy pause.

The Bank of Canada is widely expected to hold its policy rate steady through most of 2026 unless conditions materially deteriorate.

If any adjustment occurs, markets anticipate a small rate cut later in the year rather than renewed tightening.

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